When the Los Angeles Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, it won’t be the star-studded showdown fans expected. With Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards both sidelined—Doncic by a lingering injury, Edwards by a hamstring strain—the game hinges on role players stepping up. And no one has done that better than Austin Reaves, whose 92 points over the last two games have turned him into the Lakers’ de facto engine.
When Stars Vanish, Role Players Rise
The absence of Doncic and Edwards changes everything. For the Lakers, losing Doncic—a 2024 MVP finalist—was supposed to be catastrophic. But instead of collapsing, they’ve leaned hard on Reaves. The 27-year-old guard scored 51 against Sacramento and 41 against Portland, becoming the first Laker since Kobe Bryant in 2013 to post back-to-back 40-point games without LeBron James on the floor. His scoring has been methodical, efficient, and clutch. He’s not just filling in—he’s redefining what the Lakers’ offense looks like without their alpha. For Minnesota, Edwards’ absence is even more devastating. He’s their leading scorer (28.4 PPG), their defensive anchor, and their emotional heartbeat. Without him, the Wolves have lost four straight ATS despite being 2-2 SU. Their 13-point home loss to Denver on Monday—where they were +6.5 underdogs—was a textbook case of over-reliance on Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaden McDaniels. Neither can consistently carry a team against elite competition. The defense? Fragile. The bench? Inconsistent. The rhythm? Gone.The Odds Tell a Story—But Not the Whole One
Oddsmakers are split. CBS Sports and Sports Illustrated have Minnesota as 7.5-point favorites, while Wagertalk.com and BetUS.com list the Lakers as +7.5. The over/under ranges from 225.5 to 229.5, reflecting confusion about how much offense these teams can generate without their stars. Here’s the twist: the SportsLine Projection Model, which has generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors over seven seasons, favors Minnesota by 7.5 points with a 225.5 total. But here’s what they don’t tell you: their model also predicts Reaves will score 31.2 points. That’s not a fluke. It’s a pattern. And it’s why BetUS.com’s top prop bet is Reaves over 29.5 points (-118)—a pick backed by both data and gut instinct.What’s Really at Stake?
This isn’t just about wins and losses. The Western Conference is a bloodbath. The Timberwolves are fighting to stay above .500. The Lakers? They’re clinging to playoff positioning. A loss here, especially at home, could signal a season-long slump. A win? It proves they can survive without Doncic—and that Reaves isn’t just a temporary fix. The last time these teams met, Doncic dropped 49 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists in a 128-110 Lakers win. That game felt like a statement. This one? It’s a survival test. And the Wolves, without Edwards, look like a team that’s already mentally checked out. Their 0-4 ATS record isn’t random—it’s systemic. They can’t cover spreads without their star guard making contested shots, drawing double teams, and creating space.
Expert Picks and Betting Insights
Beyond Reaves’ prop, BetUS.com’s betting analyst flagged another sneaky play: Lakers to cover the +7.5 (-110). Why? Because Minnesota’s offense has sputtered without Edwards. Their last three games: 109, 111, and 114 points. The Lakers’ defense, while flawed, is better than their record suggests. They held Portland to 108 last week. They held Sacramento to 113. Both teams were without their top scorers too. The model’s 10,000 simulations suggest a final score of Lakers 117, Timberwolves 114. That’s not a blowout. It’s a grind. And in a grind, Reaves thrives. He’s the only player on either roster who’s been consistently dominant since the injuries hit. One oddity? BetUS.com mistakenly listed Deandre Ayton as a rebound prop play. Ayton plays for Portland—not Minnesota, not LA. That’s a clear editorial error. Ignore it. Focus on the real story: Reaves, the Lakers’ unsung hero, and a Wolves team that looks lost without Edwards.What Comes Next?
If Reaves keeps this up, the Lakers might not need Doncic to return. They could become a playoff team built on depth, defense, and one guard who refuses to fade. For Minnesota, the next two weeks are critical. Edwards’ return date is uncertain. If they lose again to LA, the pressure on coach Chris Finch will intensify. The Western Conference doesn’t wait for teams to get healthy. This game isn’t about who’s better on paper. It’s about who wants it more. And right now, Austin Reaves wants it more than anyone on either roster.Frequently Asked Questions
How does Austin Reaves’ performance impact the Lakers’ playoff chances?
Reaves’ back-to-back 40+ point games have given the Lakers a viable offensive identity without Luka Doncic. If he maintains this level, Los Angeles can remain competitive in the Western Conference’s brutal playoff race—even if Doncic misses the next 6–8 weeks. His efficiency (58% FG over last two games) and playmaking (7.5 APG) make him a true second option, not just a stopgap.
Why are the Timberwolves 0-4 ATS despite being 2-2 SU?
Minnesota’s wins came against weaker teams like the Spurs and Jazz, but they’ve lost by double digits to Denver and Phoenix while failing to cover. Without Anthony Edwards, their offense stalls in crunch time, and their defense can’t hold leads. They’re winning ugly, not winning smart. Their ATS record reflects a team that can’t handle pressure or adjust when trailing.
Is the SportsLine Projection Model reliable for this matchup?
Yes. The model has returned over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors over seven seasons with a 69% ATS win rate last year. Its simulations factor in injuries, pace, defensive efficiency, and home-court impact. While no model is perfect, its track record makes its 7.5-point Minnesota lean credible—especially since it still projects Reaves for over 31 points, which could make the Lakers cover.
What happens if Anthony Edwards returns before the next Lakers game?
If Edwards returns for Minnesota’s next game against LA, the entire dynamic flips. He’s their only player who can create his own shot against double teams, and his presence opens the floor for Towns and McDaniels. But even then, the Lakers would be better prepared—Reaves has proven he can carry the offense, and the team’s defense has tightened in his absence. A healthy Edwards makes Minnesota dangerous, but not necessarily superior.
Why is the over/under so inconsistent across sportsbooks?
Bookmakers are uncertain how the absence of two All-Stars affects scoring. Some assume offense will dry up; others see Reaves and Towns as high-volume scorers who can push pace. The 225.5–229.5 range reflects that split. But historical data shows games without Edwards or Doncic average 222–224 points. The under might be smarter, especially if Minnesota’s bench continues to struggle.
Can the Lakers win without Doncic for the rest of the season?
It’s unlikely they’ll contend for a top-4 seed without him. But they can absolutely stay in the play-in race. Reaves has shown he can be a primary scorer, and LeBron James’ leadership is still stabilizing. If the defense improves and the bench contributes, they could sneak in as the 8th seed. This game against Minnesota is a litmus test—if they cover +7.5, it’s proof they’re still a threat.